2016 value return gold nuggets traditional industry – fund channel-antik

2016 value return to the Nuggets traditional industry – fund channel Jin Bin during the Spring Festival, the external market volatility, to the already vague A share market has added a shadow. In the short term, the impact of A shares that have undergone a significant adjustment may not be great, but objectively speaking, the accumulation of A shares over the past few years is only the improvement of the valuation level, and the basic outlook is gradually weakening. Capital boost + government control, stock market supply has created the bull market. Investors who have made money in the past few years are largely strategic success, not very strong in stock selection. And a lot of people fail to realize that money is because they find real growth stocks and can pass them through the bear. As a result, the tide receded and realized that it was just a dream. So, recognize what kind of market this is, what strategies should be taken and how money is earned, it’s critical. Things have changed since the end of 2015. In the control of the supply side, with the future of the registration system, strategic emerging board institutional reform measures, the supply of the stock market will gradually increase; the central bank funds to promote, in order to reduce the pressure of RMB devaluation, interest rates drop quasi time delay, to some extent limit the domestic monetary policy space. So unless these things go back, you have to change the game. In view of this, the market environment changes will continue to observe our hand, pay more attention to these changes the dynamic correction and adjustment of the market outlook and investment strategy; on the other hand, starting from the two aspects of the fundamentals and valuations, strict selection criteria, not speculation, honestly make a shareholder to make enterprise growth return. In the future, we will focus on the following aspects: first, the devaluation of the RMB pressure reduction, and even a certain appreciation pressure, released the domestic monetary policy space, is conducive to the expansion of the stock market rebound. The central bank issued in the fourth quarter of 2015 before the Spring Festival monetary policy implementation report clearly stated that the reason is not to cut interest rates due to its significance of the signal is too heavy, easy to increase the devaluation pressure of the rmb. But recently, the pressure of RMB devaluation has weakened. Second, A share market valuation differentiation is serious, in the overall valuation of the expensive background, there are still many enterprises with strong long-term competitiveness is undervalued, structural opportunities still exist. Bull market is heavy, bear market is heavy. We’re wary of big, popular emerging industries in the past two years, and are more willing to dig in the traditional industry. Although the overall situation of the traditional industry is not good, but the advantages of the company’s market share and competitiveness increased, income and profits still have a big room for improvement. Thanks to the market’s dislike, valuations are at a low level, which is the opportunity for value investors. The bear switch is always in the instant. Investors who are not stubborn and always reflect on whether they are making mistakes are more likely to seize opportunities and avoid risks. (the author is chairman of Shenzhen Feng Ling capital.)

2016价值回归 掘金传统行业-基金频道   金斌   春节期间,外围市场大幅波动,给本已飘渺不定的A股市场又增加了一抹阴影。短期来看,对于已经历过大幅度调整的A股影响未必会很大,但客观来说,过去几年A股累积的涨幅更多的只是估值水平的提升,基本面展望其实是在逐步走弱。   资金推动+政府控制股市供给造就了之前的牛市。过去几年赚了钱的投资者,大部分只是策略上的成功,和选股能力关系不太大。而很多人未能意识到这一点,以为赚钱是因为找到了真正的成长股,可以抱着它们穿越牛熊。结果潮水退去,发觉只是美梦一场。所以,认清这是一个什么样的市场,应该采取什么样的策略以及钱是怎么赚来的,很关键。   2015年底以来事情起了变化。在控制供给方面,未来随着注册制、战略新兴板等制度性的改革措施,股票市场的供给会慢慢增加;资金推动方面,央行为了减轻人民币贬值压力,延后了降息降准的时间,在一定程度上限制了国内货币政策的空间。所以,除非这些东西再变回去,否则就必须换一种玩法。   鉴于此,我们一方面会持续观察市场环境的变化,更加注重这些变化的动态修正和调整自己的市场展望及投资策略;另外一方面,坚持从基本面和估值两方面出发,严格选股标准,不投机,老老实实做一个股东去赚企业成长的收益。   未来我们将重点关注以下几个方面:第一,人民币贬值压力减轻,甚至还有一定的升值压力时,释放了国内货币政策的空间,有利于股市反弹行情的展开。央行在春节前发布的2015年第四季度货币政策执行报告中明确表示,不降息降准的原因是其信号意义太重,容易加大人民币的贬值压力。但最近人民币贬值压力有减弱的迹象。第二,A股市场估值分化严重,在整体估值偏贵的背景下,依然有许多具有较强长期竞争力的企业的价值被低估,结构性机会依然存在。   牛市重势,熊市重质。我们对过去两年涨幅巨大、热门的新兴产业持谨慎态度,更愿意在传统行业里掘金。虽然传统行业整体形势不佳,但是优势公司的市场份额提升加上竞争力增强,收入及利润仍有较大的上升空间。得益于市场的不喜欢,估值又恰好处于低位,这正是价值投资者的机会。   牛熊转换往往就在一瞬间。不固执、时刻反思自己是否正在犯错的投资者,更容易把握机会,回避风险。   (作者系深圳丰岭资本董事长)相关的主题文章: