Zhang Monan the world into stagnation, tightening risk increased – Sohu Finance-jodie foster

Zhang Monan: Global stagnation risk increases – Sohu finance Zhang Monan recently, the global market turmoil, adding new uncertainty for the prospects for recovery. Especially with the end of the international commodity boom cycle, the global price level tends to decline, exacerbating the pressure of deflation. From the financial liquidity to the economic growth, the global financial market and the real economy are facing severe test. Huge fluctuations in the global financial market and the downturn in inflation are also causing concern for the global central bank, and how to recover the prescription and get rid of "stagnation growth" has become a major problem facing all the countries in the world. What is deflation? Although the academic circles have defined its meaning, they all emphasize a necessary condition, that is, the price is in a sustained and sustainable decline, showing the characteristics of "stagnation and contraction". Deflation continues in the real economy. At present, the inflation rate continues to decline in many economic sectors. According to JP Morgan global inflation data, the global inflation rate in the second quarter of 2015 was only 1.6%, far below the average level of 11% in 1990~ 2013. Core inflation in Europe and the United States rate deviates from the inflation target track, even last year the European Central Bank resorted to a new round of monetary easing is also difficult to turn the tide, the euro zone inflation rate is still hovering near the critical line. The internal state of sluggish growth in emerging markets and developing countries, deep-seated problems, industrial production down, especially Chinese reducing capacity, reduce inventory and other structural adjustment measures but also to some extent exacerbated the lack of global demand, the risk of deflation is worldwide spread. The factors that affect the decline in global price levels have increased, while factors affecting the global price level have decreased. Fed interest rate hike exacerbated global market price volatility. The dollar dominates the world economic and financial cycle, and the change of the dollar currency cycle is the premise to understand the world economic and financial trends. The Fed’s exit from quantitative easing monetary policy, in this process, the dollar appreciation effect will affect the overall price level through the channel of "import purchase price PPI-CPI". The United States is not only the "importer" of global deflation, but also the "exporter" of global deflation". As the dollar is the benchmark currency of global commodities, the continued appreciation of the dollar has led to a further decline in international commodity prices. The weak growth of real economy and the expansion of output gap lead to inflation depression. Since the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in 2008, great changes have taken place in the dynamics and pattern of global demand, the global industrial output and the new orders index slump, showing sluggish and sluggish recovery of the manufacturing sector. But during the three years of the financial crisis, global imports shrank by 8.4%, while China grew by 23.3%, becoming one of the main supporters of global demand. However, with China’s "deleveraging", "going beyond capacity" and "going out of stock", the demand for output has slowed down greatly, and the output gap has begun to increase. The global limited market resources have become the focus of competition among countries, which has directly led to a decline in the global price level. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which is the barometer of world economy and the leading indicator of international trade, fell from 1464 in November 2014 to 905 at present

张茉楠:全球陷入停滞性紧缩风险加大-搜狐财经   张茉楠  近期,全球市场剧烈动荡,为复苏前景增添了新的不确定性。特别是随着国际大宗商品繁荣周期的结束,全球价格总水平趋于下降,加剧通货紧缩的压力。从金融流动性到经济增速,全球金融市场与实体经济都面临着严峻考验。  全球金融市场巨幅波动和通胀低迷同样引发了全球央行的忧虑,如何为复苏开处方、摆脱“停滞型增长”,已经成为摆在世界各国面前的一大难题。  何谓通缩?尽管学术界对其涵义各有界定,但都强调一个必要条件,即物价全面持续性下跌,呈现出“停滞性紧缩”的特征。  实体经济通缩持续,当前,多个经济板块通货膨胀率持续下行。根据摩根大通全球通胀数据,2015年第二季度全球通胀率仅为1.6%,远远低于1990~ 2013年间11%的平均水平。欧美国家的核心通胀率偏离通胀目标轨道,即便去年欧洲央行祭出新一轮宽松货币政策也难以力挽狂澜,欧元区通胀率仍徘徊于临界线附近。新兴市场和发展中国家国家内部增长乏力,深层次问题突出,工业生产下行,特别是中国降低产能、削减库存等结构性调整措施也在一定程度上加剧了全球需求不足,通缩风险正在全球范围内蔓延。  影响全球价格总水平下降的因素有所增加,而影响全球价格总水平上行的因素有所减少。美联储加息加剧了全球市场价格波动。美元主导世界经济金融周期,美元货币周期的转变是认识世界经济金融走向的前提。美联储退出量化宽松货币政策,在这一过程中,美元升值效应将通过“进口-购进价格PPI-CPI”的渠道影响价格总水平。  美国既是全球通货紧缩的“输入者”,也是全球通货紧缩的“输出者”。由于美元是全球大宗商品的基准计价货币,美元持续升值导致国际大宗商品价格进一步下降。  实体经济增长乏力和产出缺口扩大也导致通胀低迷。2008年次贷危机、欧债危机以来,全球需求动能和格局发生了重大变化,全球工业产出以及新订单指数低迷,显示制造业复苏迟缓和低迷。但金融危机肆虐三年间,全球进口总体萎缩8.4%,中国却逆势增长23.3%,成为全球需求的主要支撑者之一。  然而随着近年中国启动“去杠杆、去产能、去库存”进程,增量需求大大放缓,产出缺口开始加大,全球有限的市场资源成为各国的竞争焦点,直接导致了全球价格总水平的下降。  作为世界经济晴雨表和国际贸易先行指标的波罗的海干散货指数(BDI),由2014年11月的1464点跌至目前的905点,跌幅高达38%,为30年来的低位,凸显出世界经济放缓和原材料进出口带来的贸易低迷。  此外,美元正在步入新周期,将会使许多以美元计价的新兴经济体增加海外债务风险,并推升全球债务负担和融资成本。据IMF统计,在2008年金融危机后,新兴市场的非金融类企业海外发债规模急剧飙升,其本质大多是新兴市场大企业利用离岸子公司通过在离岸市场所发行的债券、跨境外币贷款来进行资金套利交易。如果美元进入升值通道,新兴经济体债券展期成本将显著上升,债务风险也会随之升温。  与此同时,人口结构的变化对世界经济和价格总水平的影响更为深远。全球主要经济体步入劳动人口周期变化拐点,特别是2008~2014年,叠加了美系国家和中国两个全球最大经济体人口周期拐点。  人口结构变化,老龄化趋势导致储蓄消费结构变化,消费增长趋于停滞,这是导致供给失衡,并进一步引发全球需求萎缩和价格总水平下滑的重要因素。  眼下,全球面临的通缩是结构性的,结构性问题须结构性改革应对,寻找新的“供给替代”,提高全要素生产率,切实促进世界经济增长才是治本之策。  (作者为中国国际经济交流中心副研究员)相关的主题文章: